diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
index 3c049c8..126b6a1 100644
--- a/CHANGELOG.md
+++ b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -1,5 +1,26 @@
 # Changelog
 
+## 0.16.1 - 2026-10-02
+
+- Fix the SQLite join order of the claimed-message scan. The query in
+  `ActivationManager#claimed_instance_ids` has no condition on a
+  claimed-message column. The claimed-messages table is a short queue, so it is
+  often empty when `ANALYZE` or `PRAGMA optimize` runs, and `sqlite_stat1` then
+  has no row for it. Without statistics, SQLite assumed that the table was
+  large, and it scanned every instance on each worker poll. The scan now uses
+  `CROSS JOIN`, which SQLite keeps as a fixed join order, so it starts from the
+  claimed messages. PostgreSQL and MySQL treat `CROSS JOIN` with an equality as
+  an inner join and keep their plans. The ids and their order do not change.
+- Find SQLite effect recovery candidates through the processing effects.
+  `sqlite_stat1` records only the average row count for each effect status.
+  When most effects are complete, SQLite estimated that `status = 'processing'`
+  matched most of the effects table. It then read every recovery row in key
+  order to skip a sort, on each effect poll. An index on the recovery filter
+  does not help, because a recovery row keeps `retired_at` empty after a normal
+  completion. On SQLite the status test now carries
+  `likelihood(..., 0.000001)`, so the plan starts from `idx_so_effects_poll`.
+  The PostgreSQL and MySQL queries do not change.
+
 ## 0.16.0 - 2026-09-23
 
 - Find a message whose reference a caller lost.
diff --git a/Gemfile.lock b/Gemfile.lock
index 42ee6f8..8491504 100644
--- a/Gemfile.lock
+++ b/Gemfile.lock
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 PATH
   remote: .
   specs:
-    solid_objects (0.16.0)
+    solid_objects (0.16.1)
       actioncable (>= 7.1)
       actionpack (>= 7.1)
       actionview (>= 7.1)
@@ -384,7 +384,7 @@ CHECKSUMS
   rubocop-rails-omakase (1.1.0) sha256=2af73ac8ee5852de2919abbd2618af9c15c19b512c4cfc1f9a5d3b6ef009109d
   ruby-progressbar (1.13.0) sha256=80fc9c47a9b640d6834e0dc7b3c94c9df37f08cb072b7761e4a71e22cff29b33
   securerandom (0.4.1) sha256=cc5193d414a4341b6e225f0cb4446aceca8e50d5e1888743fac16987638ea0b1
-  solid_objects (0.16.0)
+  solid_objects (0.16.1)
   sqlite3 (2.9.5-aarch64-linux-gnu) sha256=78075b6337d3d182c6d2b4691049ed45cd220826160c9ea18946bf6a1de200dc
   sqlite3 (2.9.5-aarch64-linux-musl) sha256=18c801185deb4adc01ddb281e8f672a39e3d1729979ca91e39439cd3eac0402d
   sqlite3 (2.9.5-arm-linux-gnu) sha256=1bdfca0c7d63998c60b0f4a8e3c8df2d33800ccc4abd2d612eddbbbc92a4c48b
diff --git a/lib/solid_objects/activation_manager.rb b/lib/solid_objects/activation_manager.rb
index bc0a624..12d6c23 100644
--- a/lib/solid_objects/activation_manager.rb
+++ b/lib/solid_objects/activation_manager.rb
@@ -86,7 +86,8 @@ def ready_instance_ids(now)
     # @rbs (Time) -> Array[Integer]
     def claimed_instance_ids(now)
       ClaimedMessage
-        .joins(:instance)
+        .joins("CROSS JOIN #{Instance.table_name}")
+        .where("#{Instance.table_name}.id = #{ClaimedMessage.table_name}.instance_id")
         .where("#{Instance.table_name}.paused_at IS NULL")
         .where(available_lease_sql, now)
         .group(:instance_id)
diff --git a/lib/solid_objects/effect_recovery_coordinator.rb b/lib/solid_objects/effect_recovery_coordinator.rb
index 9d0e398..2277498 100644
--- a/lib/solid_objects/effect_recovery_coordinator.rb
+++ b/lib/solid_objects/effect_recovery_coordinator.rb
@@ -63,17 +63,22 @@ def recovery_candidates
       effects = Effect.table_name
       owners = Process.table_name
       bindings = EffectRecovery.table_name
-      heartbeat = case DatabaseAdapter.family(Record.connection)
+      family = DatabaseAdapter.family(Record.connection)
+      heartbeat = case family
       when :postgresql then "EXTRACT(EPOCH FROM #{owners}.last_heartbeat_at)"
       when :mysql then "UNIX_TIMESTAMP(#{owners}.last_heartbeat_at)"
       else "CAST(STRFTIME('%s', #{owners}.last_heartbeat_at) AS REAL)"
       end
+      processing = case family
+      when :postgresql, :mysql then "#{effects}.status = ?"
+      else "likelihood(#{effects}.status = ?, 0.000001)"
+      end
       now = SolidObjects.database_adapter.database_clock_now.to_f
       threshold = SolidObjects.configuration.process_alive_threshold
       EffectRecovery.joins("INNER JOIN #{effects} ON #{effects}.effect_id = #{bindings}.effect_id")
         .joins("LEFT JOIN #{owners} ON #{owners}.id = #{effects}.claimed_by")
         .where(retired_at: nil).where.not(recovery_operation: nil)
-        .where("#{effects}.status = ?", "processing")
+        .where(processing, "processing")
         .where("#{owners}.id IS NULL OR #{heartbeat} <= ? - CASE WHEN #{bindings}.recovery_timeout > ? THEN #{bindings}.recovery_timeout ELSE ? END", now, threshold, threshold)
         .order(:effect_id).limit(SolidObjects.configuration.claim_scan_limit)
     end
diff --git a/lib/solid_objects/version.rb b/lib/solid_objects/version.rb
index d9c362b..dd4bb70 100644
--- a/lib/solid_objects/version.rb
+++ b/lib/solid_objects/version.rb
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 # rbs_inline: enabled
 
 module SolidObjects
-  VERSION = "0.16.0"
+  VERSION = "0.16.1"
 end
diff --git a/test/database_test_helper.rb b/test/database_test_helper.rb
index 66d8db5..9ef67a0 100644
--- a/test/database_test_helper.rb
+++ b/test/database_test_helper.rb
@@ -83,6 +83,30 @@ def suspend_sqlite_busy_wait(connection)
     connection.raw_connection.busy_handler_timeout = configured_sqlite_busy_handler_timeout
   end
 
+  def restoring_sqlite_statistics(connection)
+    saved = sqlite_statistics_tables(connection).to_h { |table| [ table, connection.select_all("SELECT * FROM #{table}") ] }
+    yield
+  ensure
+    restore_sqlite_statistics(connection, saved) if saved
+  end
+
+  def restore_sqlite_statistics(connection, saved)
+    database = connection.raw_connection
+    saved.each do |table, statistics|
+      placeholders = Array.new(statistics.columns.length, "?").join(", ")
+      database.execute("DELETE FROM #{table}")
+      statistics.rows.each do |row|
+        database.execute("INSERT INTO #{table} (#{statistics.columns.join(", ")}) VALUES (#{placeholders})", row)
+      end
+    end
+    database.execute("ANALYZE sqlite_schema")
+    (sqlite_statistics_tables(connection) - saved.keys).each { |table| database.execute("DROP TABLE #{table}") }
+  end
+
+  def sqlite_statistics_tables(connection)
+    connection.select_values("SELECT name FROM sqlite_schema WHERE type = 'table' AND name LIKE 'sqlite\\_stat%' ESCAPE '\\'")
+  end
+
   def configured_sqlite_busy_handler_timeout
     SolidObjects::Record
       .connection_pool
diff --git a/test/integration/activation_candidates_test.rb b/test/integration/activation_candidates_test.rb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..54a5628
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/integration/activation_candidates_test.rb
@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require "database_test_helper"
+
+class ActivationCandidatesTest < ActiveSupport::TestCase
+  class CandidateActor < SolidObjects::Actor
+    actor_type "activation-candidates"
+
+    def run
+    end
+  end
+
+  test "claimed candidates skip paused and live leases in claim order" do
+    now = SolidObjects.database_adapter.database_now
+    owner = create_process
+    expired = claim_message("expired", claimed_at: now - 40.seconds, owner:, lease_expires_at: now - 1.second)
+    unleased = claim_message("unleased", claimed_at: now - 30.seconds)
+    first_tie = claim_message("first-tie", claimed_at: now - 20.seconds)
+    second_tie = claim_message("second-tie", claimed_at: now - 20.seconds)
+    unexpiring = claim_message("unexpiring", claimed_at: now - 10.seconds, owner:)
+    claim_message("paused", claimed_at: now - 50.seconds, paused_at: now - 1.minute)
+    claim_message("leased", claimed_at: now - 60.seconds, owner:, lease_expires_at: now + 1.minute)
+
+    assert_equal [ expired, unleased, first_tie, second_tie, unexpiring ], claimed_instance_ids(now)
+  end
+
+  test "claimed candidates stop at the claim scan limit" do
+    now = SolidObjects.database_adapter.database_now
+    SolidObjects.configuration.claim_scan_limit = 2
+    oldest = claim_message("oldest", claimed_at: now - 30.seconds)
+    older = claim_message("older", claimed_at: now - 20.seconds)
+    claim_message("newest", claimed_at: now - 10.seconds)
+
+    assert_equal [ oldest, older ], claimed_instance_ids(now)
+  end
+
+  test "SQLite reads claimed candidates from the claimed messages when they have no statistics" do
+    skip "requires a SQLite query plan" unless database_family == :sqlite
+
+    now = SolidObjects.database_adapter.database_now
+    connection = SolidObjects::Record.connection
+    restoring_sqlite_statistics(connection) do
+      SolidObjects::Instance.insert_all!(Array.new(3_000) { |index|
+        { actor_type: "activation-candidates", actor_id: "idle-#{index}", state: {}, created_at: now, updated_at: now }
+      })
+      connection.execute("ANALYZE")
+      analyzed_tables = connection.select_values("SELECT DISTINCT tbl FROM sqlite_stat1")
+
+      assert_includes analyzed_tables, SolidObjects::Instance.table_name
+      refute_includes analyzed_tables, SolidObjects::ClaimedMessage.table_name
+
+      plan = sqlite_query_plan(connection, SolidObjects::ClaimedMessage.table_name) { claimed_instance_ids(now) }
+
+      assert_match(/\A(SCAN|SEARCH) #{SolidObjects::ClaimedMessage.table_name}\b/, plan.first, plan.join("\n"))
+      assert plan.none? { |step| step.start_with?("SCAN #{SolidObjects::Instance.table_name}") }, plan.join("\n")
+    end
+  end
+
+  private
+
+  def claimed_instance_ids(now)
+    SolidObjects::ActivationManager.new(owner_id: SecureRandom.uuid).send(:claimed_instance_ids, now)
+  end
+
+  def claim_message(actor_id, claimed_at:, owner: nil, lease_expires_at: nil, paused_at: nil)
+    message = SolidObjects::Message.find(CandidateActor.ref(actor_id).async.run.id)
+    SolidObjects::ReadyMessage.where(message:).delete_all
+    message.instance.update!(
+      activation_owner_id: owner&.id,
+      activation_token: owner && SecureRandom.uuid,
+      activation_expires_at: lease_expires_at,
+      paused_at:
+    )
+    SolidObjects::ClaimedMessage.create!(message:, instance: message.instance, activation_generation: 1, claimed_at:)
+    message.instance_id
+  end
+
+  def create_process
+    SolidObjects::Process.create!(
+      id: SecureRandom.uuid,
+      kind: "worker",
+      hostname: "test-host",
+      pid: ::Process.pid,
+      started_at: Time.current,
+      last_heartbeat_at: Time.current,
+      metadata: {}
+    )
+  end
+
+  def sqlite_query_plan(connection, table_name)
+    statements = []
+    subscriber = ->(*arguments) { statements << arguments.last }
+    ActiveSupport::Notifications.subscribed(subscriber, "sql.active_record") { yield }
+    statement = statements.find { |payload| payload[:sql].match?(/\ASELECT .* FROM "#{table_name}"/) }
+    assert statement, "the #{table_name} query was not captured"
+
+    connection.select_all("EXPLAIN QUERY PLAN #{statement[:sql]}", "SQL", statement[:binds]).map { |row| row["detail"] }
+  end
+end
diff --git a/test/integration/effect_recovery_candidates_test.rb b/test/integration/effect_recovery_candidates_test.rb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9a33af8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/integration/effect_recovery_candidates_test.rb
@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+# frozen_string_literal: true
+
+require "database_test_helper"
+
+class EffectRecoveryCandidatesTest < ActiveSupport::TestCase
+  class CandidateActor < SolidObjects::Actor
+    actor_type "effect-recovery-candidates"
+
+    def run
+    end
+  end
+
+  setup do
+    @message = SolidObjects::Message.find(CandidateActor.ref("one").async.run.id)
+  end
+
+  test "recovery candidates are abandoned processing effects with a recovery operation in effect order" do
+    now = SolidObjects.database_adapter.database_clock_now
+    threshold = SolidObjects.configuration.process_alive_threshold
+    live_owner = create_process(last_heartbeat_at: now)
+    stale_owner = create_process(last_heartbeat_at: now - (threshold * 3))
+    unowned = create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000009", status: "processing")
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001", status: "processing", owner: live_owner)
+    abandoned = create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000002", status: "processing", owner: stale_owner)
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000003", status: "processing", owner: stale_owner, recovery_timeout: threshold * 10)
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000004", status: "processing", retired_at: now)
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000005", status: "processing", recovery_operation: nil)
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000006", status: "pending")
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000007", status: "completed")
+
+    assert_equal [ abandoned, unowned ], recovery_candidates.map(&:effect_id)
+  end
+
+  test "recovery candidates stop at the claim scan limit" do
+    SolidObjects.configuration.claim_scan_limit = 1
+    create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000002", status: "processing")
+    first = create_effect("00000000-0000-4000-8000-000000000001", status: "processing")
+
+    assert_equal [ first ], recovery_candidates.map(&:effect_id)
+  end
+
+  test "SQLite finds recovery candidates through processing effects when most effects are complete" do
+    skip "requires a SQLite query plan" unless database_family == :sqlite
+
+    now = Time.current
+    effect_ids = Array.new(3_000) { SecureRandom.uuid }
+    connection = SolidObjects::Record.connection
+    restoring_sqlite_statistics(connection) do
+      SolidObjects::Effect.insert_all!(effect_ids.map { |effect_id|
+        { message_id: @message.id, instance_id: @message.instance_id, effect_id:, name: "work", arguments: {},
+          status: "completed", max_attempts: 3, available_at: now, completed_at: now, created_at: now, updated_at: now }
+      })
+      SolidObjects::EffectRecovery.insert_all!(effect_ids.last(300).map { |effect_id|
+        { effect_id:, instance_id: @message.instance_id, recovery_operation: "recover", status_operation: "status",
+          created_at: now, updated_at: now }
+      })
+      connection.execute("ANALYZE")
+      poll_statistics = connection.select_value("SELECT stat FROM sqlite_stat1 WHERE idx = 'idx_so_effects_poll'")
+
+      assert_equal 3_000, poll_statistics.split[1].to_i
+
+      plan = connection.select_all("EXPLAIN QUERY PLAN #{recovery_candidates.to_sql}").map { |row| row["detail"] }
+
+      assert_match(/\ASEARCH #{SolidObjects::Effect.table_name} USING INDEX idx_so_effects_poll \(status=\?\)/, plan.first, plan.join("\n"))
+      assert plan.none? { |step| step.start_with?("SCAN ") }, plan.join("\n")
+    end
+  end
+
+  private
+
+  def recovery_candidates
+    SolidObjects::EffectRecoveryCoordinator.new.send(:recovery_candidates)
+  end
+
+  def create_effect(effect_id, status:, owner: nil, recovery_operation: "recover", recovery_timeout: nil, retired_at: nil)
+    SolidObjects::Effect.create!(
+      message: @message,
+      instance: @message.instance,
+      effect_id:,
+      name: "work",
+      arguments: {},
+      status:,
+      max_attempts: 3,
+      available_at: Time.current,
+      claimed_by: owner&.id,
+      claimed_at: owner && Time.current
+    )
+    SolidObjects::EffectRecovery.create!(
+      effect_id:,
+      instance: @message.instance,
+      recovery_operation:,
+      status_operation: "status",
+      recovery_timeout:,
+      retired_at:
+    )
+    effect_id
+  end
+
+  def create_process(last_heartbeat_at:)
+    SolidObjects::Process.create!(
+      id: SecureRandom.uuid,
+      kind: "effect",
+      hostname: "test-host",
+      pid: ::Process.pid,
+      started_at: last_heartbeat_at,
+      last_heartbeat_at:,
+      metadata: {}
+    )
+  end
+end