[anth-volk]

Fixes #2228

Limit the Housing Benefit childcare deduction to two amounts: the capped aggregate childcare charges, and the earnings residual plus Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/applicable_income/housing_benefit_applicable_income_childcare_element.yaml::Low earnings after standard disregard

What changes

• The limit: max(0, net earnings − applied standard − accommodation) + WTC + CTC. Pension, maintenance and other unrelated income can't meet childcare charges.
• One standard disregard. The standard earnings disregard comes from main's housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard. The retained helper hb_standard_earnings_disregard returns that variable. So the general, savings-credit and childcare paths share one treatment of permitted work and lone parents. The helper and hb_childcare_earnings_limit(..., accommodation=) keep their signatures for the stacked Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234.
• Negative earnings. Explicitly supplied negative net earnings are floored at zero before the shared permitted-work cap, because a disregard can't be negative. This changes main's output only for a supplied negative housing_benefit_net_earnings.
• Main's tests. Main's legacy-benefit child definitions, age limits and one-child and multiple-child cap regressions are kept. Each of those cases now supplies earnings that leave the new limit non-binding.
• A pre-2025 case. It covers WTC with a disability element:
  • £2,000 net earnings less the special £1,040 standard (£20 × 52) leaves £960;
  • £500 of WTC raises the limit and the deduction to £1,460.
• No cycle. The documentation names the WTC eligibility path and the direct WTC addition. It explains why neither creates a cycle while earnings are fixed: with no baseline, or with zero labour supply elasticities, which are the defaults.

Invariants (Hypothesis properties)

• C1, bounds: the deduction lies between zero and the smaller of the capped charges and the earnings limit.
• C2, unrelated income: pension or maintenance income can't fund the deduction.
• C3, residual identity: the limit equals the residual formula, using the calculated shared applied standard. This is a differential check, not a certification of every tax-credit allocation (see the limits below).
• C4, monotonicity: more net earnings can't lower the limit, and higher childcare charges can't lower the deduction.

Validation

• Hub build (round 2) at 28f85f2:
  • the Housing Benefit YAML directory passed, 43 files and 570 cases;
  • 12 separately selected pytest nodes passed: five new childcare properties and seven affected existing ones, including the working-age and pension-age agreement property;
  • 300 helper comparisons agree;
  • three mutants were killed: income other than earnings funding childcare, a helper without the lone-parent arm, and the WTC term dropped from the limit;
  • every file was restored byte for byte.
• Independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol): APPROVE WITH NITS at 28f85f2, with no P1 or P2 findings. It checked the law and the WTC arithmetic, the shared-standard floor, Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234 compatibility, the age and count fixtures and the property oracles. Its two P3s are applied in a1bcf93:
  • the existing earnings-disregard property file keeps the UK Simulation constructor, as on main;
  • the no-cycle note names its conditions.
• No full suite, dataset or microsimulation was run locally. CI runs the suites and the aggregate impact at the head.

Limits

• Simplifications kept: this retains aggregate childcare_expenses, the age-based relevant-child count, and an annual approximation with constant household circumstances.

• Deferred to Implement deferred Housing Benefit qualifying-childcare conditions #2236:

  • provider eligibility;
  • excluded charge types;
  • work and leave conditions;
  • incapacity and continuation exceptions;
  • counting only children receiving paid care.

  The age-based count can overstate the cap when only one of several eligible children has paid care.

• Tax-credit allocation (found in review, pre-existing). SI 2006/213 Schedule 5 paragraph 56 can reserve part of WTC for its own disregard before childcare. The applicable-income path doesn't model that.

  • Example: earnings £5,200, standard £1,300, care £4,160 and WTC £100. This limit gives a £4,000 deduction; reserving the £100 gives £3,900.
  • In that example, counted earnings plus credits are zero either way. The review found no aggregate-income regression from this PR. The paragraph 56 route is tracked in Housing Benefit: reserve WTC for the Schedule 5 paragraph 56 disregard before childcare #2730.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued
The childcare charges extension to rulespec-uk#375, with the law, required outputs and companion tests: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 (comment) (UK hub, 24 Oct).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Parent-gated build hand-off. Head remains c5e5f88471395f09d1ecd0770cbaee2c938c7807; no branch changes, push or retarget. Immediate parent #2219 is still OPEN/unmerged at a66b990b52a468d2182d3154cbcbf8da66982b1a (checked 22 October). Root #2211 has a local reconciliation awaiting the required disk gate: #2211 (comment)

Tests for this child: 0 executed in this job; no claim is made about the current head's CI. Preserve Anthony's corrected disabled-worker earnings-disregard regression (£1,929.20) when updating the base. Draft status unchanged; no merge/readiness/closure action.

Once #2219 lands, the pending commands are:

git fetch origin main fix-hb-qualified-childcare
git switch fix-hb-qualified-childcare  # create tracking branch if absent
git merge --no-ff origin/main
# Resolve, run focused foreground tests with -n 2 after load1 <=110 and
# os.statvfs available disk >=55 GB decimal; commit fixes and push once.
gh api -X PATCH repos/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pulls/2229 -f base=main

Open items: parent landing; merge/test/push/body refresh as needed; retarget; hub independent review. #2234 remains gated on this PR's landing.

Corrected the published PR body: current head uses aggregate childcare_expenses and the age-based child count, adds no qualifying-charge input, and defers detailed qualifying-care rules to #2236. The old body claimed the removed input. No code or historical test result was changed; current-head verification remains open.

[juaristi22]

Reviewed at c5e5f88471395f09d1ecd0770cbaee2c938c7807. The changed childcare calculation and source checks found no new defect, but the stack’s targeted validation needs refreshing before landing.

Of 107 focused cases, 106 pass. The unchanged inherited disabled-worker case expects £1149.20 instead of £1929.20 at both base and head; the latest #2225 already corrects it. Incorporate that parent update and obtain a green targeted run.

The new residual ordering matches the reviewed GB/NI provisions and DWP guidance. An independent final-award case caps £4160 reported childcare spending at £3620.05 remaining earnings, reducing HB from £6429.80 to £6078.83 versus the old-cap control, exactly 65% of the disallowed £539.95. Provider/work qualification and paid-care-child counting remain deferred to #2236, as documented; this review does not certify those unchanged approximations.

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: #2219 merged at 15:47Z (8a5a7d3), so I retargeted this PR from add-hb-permitted-work to main. A restack build is running on fix-hb-qualified-childcare from c5e5f88. It will:

• merge main;
• point hb_standard_earnings_disregard at Add Housing Benefit permitted-work earnings disregard #2219's shared housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard, keeping the helper names Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234 imports;
• add the owed WTC no-cycle note and a pre-2025 WTC disability-with-childcare regression;
• rerun the age-agreement property, and add property and mutation tests.

The build pushes a merge commit, never a force-push. The hub will update the body after an independent review.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base b090ec6277 against head 2539d784d6, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main b090ec6277	uk 2.163.2 (files 361d4f9ceaf6), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	b0a4790c3b8d	1eac2ca06b91	1927.56s
head	#2229 merged into main 2539d784d6	uk 2.163.2 (files 395315f649d7), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	b0a4790c3b8d	1eac2ca06b91	1933.64s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
household_benefits	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
gov_balance	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.42bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.62bn †	£1,781.68bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.29bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.67bn	£1,640.49bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.6%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,057k	10,466k	10,734k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,210k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,853k	5,746k	6,021k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,373k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,419k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,366k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,962 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,850 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,145 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,289 †	£47,328 †	£48,286 †	£49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,218 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: landing this at a1bcf93.

@juaristi22's review (24 Oct, at c5e5f88). Its one action was to bring in #2225's corrected disabled-worker case and get a green targeted run.

• Main, merged here in 8ad4e91, carries that correction: the case now expects £1,929.20.
• The hub's build ran the full Housing Benefit YAML directory at 28f85f2: 43 files and 570 cases passed, the corrected case among them. CI then passed all 19 checks at that head.

Since then:

• 50215df makes the childcare limit read main's shared housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard. Net earnings are floored at zero first, which changes only a supplied negative net earnings. It also adds a pre-2025 WTC disability case: £960 + £500 = £1,460.
• 28f85f2 adds properties C1 to C4.
• An independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol) gave APPROVE WITH NITS at 28f85f2, with no P1 or P2 findings. Its two P3s are in a1bcf93:
  • the existing earnings-disregard property file keeps the UK Simulation constructor, as on main;
  • the no-cycle note names when earnings are fixed (no baseline, or zero labour supply elasticities, the defaults).
• The review also found a pre-existing gap in how WTC is split between the Schedule 5 paragraph 56 disregard and childcare. That is now Housing Benefit: reserve WTC for the Schedule 5 paragraph 56 disregard before childcare #2730; it isn't a regression from this PR.

The body is updated. The hub marks the PR ready and queues it once CI is green at a1bcf93. #2234 then merges main.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: queued at a1bcf93 once gh pr checks passed at this head. Reviews and the landing note are in the comment above.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code